2023 Real Estate Market Forecast: Indian Shores

2023 Real Estate Market Forecast: Indian Shores

  • Adrienne Dauses
  • 05/11/23

The Indian Shores Real Estate Market in 2022

Indian Shores real estate saw dramatic changes in 2022. The rate at which homes were selling in Pinellas County reached a four-year peak in March. By November, that fell to the second-lowest rates seen in that same time. The absorption rate is a measure of closed sales divided by active listings. The March Pinellas County absorption rate was 244%. In November, it had fallen all the way to 34%. The only time it fell lower in recent years was 30% in February 2019.

At the same time, the number of closed sales was down over 44% year-over-year in November. November also had the lowest number of closed sales since any month prior to January 2018. However, median and average home prices did appear to stabilize at the end of the year. That trend is expected to carry forward into 2023.

Coming down from pandemic highs

The median time to sale in Pinellas County was up 37% year-over-year in November. The median time to sale reached 63 days as the market slowed markedly. In contrast, the median time to sale in March and April was 39 days. This was also the shortest median time to sale in recent years. Buyers snatched up local property as soon as it went on the market during the first two years of the pandemic. As a result, median time to contract hit a record-low five days in March. However, by November, that had ballooned to 28 days.

As sales slowed near the end of 2022, housing inventory grew significantly. Inventory had fallen to approximately half a month's supply in January and February. By November, it rose to more than two months. To put that trend in context, a 6-month supply is considered a balanced housing market. As such, the local housing inventory is still well short of what experts consider to be ideal.

National trends are impacting local markets

Rising interest rates cooled the Indian Shores housing market at the end of 2022. However, rates began to come back down in the final weeks of 2022. Still, rates on 15-year and 30-year mortgages hovered around 6%, more than double the mortgage rates from a year prior. As a result, potential buyers found little relief.

At the same time, many current homeowners hold mortgages with much lower fixed rates. Two-thirds of homeowners have a fixed-rate mortgage with less than 4% interest. Those homeowners are unlikely to sell as they would have to secure higher rates if they did. This adds downward pressure on the housing inventory.

Many are also avoiding major financial decisions due to inflation and recession fears. As such, the reduction of homes on the market is being met by even fewer buyers, resulting in reduced competition for homes.

Florida still has a housing shortage

The state has followed a similar trend to the Indian Shores real estate market. Florida housing inventory has grown in recent months, though inventory is still not balanced. The state had less than a 1-month supply in February, which rebounded to a 2.8-month supply in November.

The median home price peaked at $420,000 in May and June, then declined to $400,000 by November. This was still a 10% year-over-year increase, but prices declined more slowly than they rose. Florida's median home price began in 2022 at $374,000.

New residents moving into Florida during the pandemic increased demand for real estate, and that outside demand has not declined despite slowing sales. The average wait time for newly built homes across the state is currently a year or more compared to a normal average wait time is seven to nine months. This has placed further pressure on the market for existing homes and is unlikely to be relieved any time soon. Recession fears and supply chain issues continue to hinder new home construction.

Florida's housing supply has increased significantly in recent months. However, 2023 is unlikely to see any similar increases in supply. Florida home buyers can expect below-normal housing supply into the foreseeable future.

Sale prices are stable and unlikely to fall

The median sale price for Pinellas County single-family homes peaked in June then followed statewide trends as prices leveled off near the end of 2022. As a result, the median sale price for November was still up more than 10% year-over-year. Prices did decline toward the end of 2022, but that decline was much more gradual than the previous upward trend.

Single-family home cash sales as a percentage of all sales were also up as interest rates grew at the end of the year. However, they were down 5% year-over-year, accounting for only 36% of closed sales in November. In contrast, cash sales accounted for almost 57% of condo and townhome sales in November, which was more than a 9% year-over-year increase.

Many Pinellas County home sellers received less than their listing price in November, something that has happened rarely since 2020. The median percent of original list price received for townhomes and condos was 96%, and single-family homes fetched just over 95%. This is likely due to sellers' expectations lagging behind falling prices.

Heading into 2023, sellers are expected to adjust their expectations though home prices are unlikely to drop significantly across the board. As a result, the housing market is likely to revert to pre-pandemic pricing trends. Indian Shores properties will gain value, but at a more moderate rate than in recent years.

Gaining the edge in Indian Shores real estate

Whether buying or selling a home in Indian Shores, the local real estate market is only one factor. Other factors, from personal to financial, play an important role as well. Determining the right move for you requires consideration of all those factors. That is why it is so important to have an experienced real estate agent you can trust, such as Adrienne Dauses. The right agent has the understanding and insight you need to make the right decision.

Work With Adrienne

I offer the highest level of expertise, service, and integrity. I would love to speak to you more about your real estate needs. Please contact me to see how I can help you achieve your goals and make the most of today’s real estate in an ever changing market.

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